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        <title>Real Estate News</title>
        <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/</link>
        <description>Canadian housing and real estate news. Stay on top of the housing market in Canada. </description>
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    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-canada-this-year/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-canada-this-year/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Will Mortgage Rates Go Up in Canada This Year?</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Short answer: probably not this summer. A year-end hike, though, is now a real possibility. Headline CPI jumped to 3.2 year-over-year in May 2026, up from 2.8 in April, largely because gasoline prices surged 33.2 following energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict (Statistics Canada; CBC News). Sounds alarming. But core inflation, the number the Bank of Canada actually watches most closely and the measure that strips out volatile energy and food prices, held steadier at 2.1.


So is this a red flag or a blip? It depends on whether rising producer prices, which have historically led consumer prices by a quarter or two, keep pushing that core CPI number higher over the coming months. Statistics Canada notes roughly 40 of Canadian businesses expect to pass tariff-related cost increases on to customers over the next year, rising to 65 among exporters. If that transmission happens at scale, core inflation follows, and the Bank of Canada's rate hold gets harder to justify.


Here's how inflation's latest move affects anyone with a mortgage decision on the horizon.





Where Rate Pressure Matters Less


Markets with tighter housing supply and more affordable benchmark price points tend to be less sensitive to Bank of Canada rate moves. Buyers there have more qualification headroom before affordability becomes a real constraint. Alberta and Saskatchewan, both posting some of the tightest months of inventory in the country through 2026, fall into this category. A 25-basis-point rate increase would sting meaningfully less there than in already-stretched markets.


Where Rate Pressure Matters Most


Higher-priced markets like Toronto and Vancouver are the most exposed if the overnight rate moves higher, because mortgage affordability is already stretched thin at current benchmark price levels. The Bank of Canada has held its overnight rate at 2.25 (prime rate 4.45) since October 2025, and while most forecasters expect a hold through summer, a modest year-end hike is becoming the base case scenario if energy-driven inflation proves sticky (WealthNorth). Government of Canada bond yields are sitting near 3.0, fixed mortgage rates are already elevated, and even a small rate increase can meaningfully shrink the buyer pool and the purchase price buyers can qualify for in these markets.


If You're Buying


Get your mortgage pre-approval in place now, so you're locked into today's rate for 90 to 120 days if rates do rise later this year. Compare rates across multiple lenders before you commit. In this rate environment, a quarter-point difference compounds meaningfully over a 25-year amortization.


Shopping in Toronto or Vancouver? Build some budget cushion for rate sensitivity. The mortgage affordability ceiling there is already tight, and a year-end hike narrows it further. Don't assume today's prime rate holds through your closing date.


Keep an eye on the July 20, 2026 CPI release. Its the next major signal on whether this inflation pickup is structural or fades as the energy price base effect normalizes.







Frequently Asked Questions

 Will mortgage rates go up in Canada in 2026? 

Most forecasters expect the Bank of Canada to hold its overnight rate through summer 2026, though a modest year-end hike is becoming the base case if energy-driven inflation proves persistent. The BoC has held its overnight rate at 2.25 (prime rate 4.45) since October 2025, and May 2026's headline CPI reading of 3.2 has removed room to cut further for now (WealthNorth; TD Economics).

  Why is inflation rising again in Canada in 2026? 

Inflation is rising primarily due to a 33.2 year-over-year surge in gasoline prices in May 2026, following energy supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. Headline CPI rose to 3.2 from 2.8 in April, though core inflation held steadier at 2.1, suggesting price pressure remains concentrated in energy rather than spreading broadly through the Canadian economy (Statistics Canada; CBC News).

  How does inflation affect mortgage rates in Canada?

Rising inflation typically prevents the Bank of Canada from cutting its overnight rate, and can push it toward hiking if the trend persists, since higher rates are the primary monetary policy tool for cooling price growth. With the overnight rate at 2.25 and core inflation above 2 on a three-month annualized basis, further inflation surprises could delay expected rate relief and push fixed mortgage rates higher (Bank of Canada; TD Economics).

  What is the Bank of Canada's neutral interest rate? 

The neutral rate is the overnight rate level at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts the economy. The Bank of Canada estimates the neutral rate at 2.25 to 3.25 as of 2026. With the current overnight rate at 2.25, the lower bound of that range, the Bank has limited room to cut further without risking additional inflationary pressure (Bank of Canada; WealthNorth).





Data sources: Statistics Canada (The Daily, Consumer Price Index, May 2026), Bank of Canada (Consumer Price Index definitions; Inflation explainers), TD Economics (Canadian CPI, May 2026), WealthNorth (Canada Interest Rate Forecast 2026–2030, June 2026), CBC News (June 22, 2026).
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
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    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/quebec-city-and-the-prairie-provinces-are-outpacing-the-canadian-housing-market/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/quebec-city-and-the-prairie-provinces-are-outpacing-the-canadian-housing-market/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Quebec City and the Prairie Provinces Are Outpacing the Canadian Housing Market</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 

If you're a homeowner worried about your real estate equity and you live in Quebec City, Winnipeg or Regina. Relax, you're doing just fine. Better than fine, in some cases.





Home Prices Across Canada


Canada's National Composite MLS® HPI fell 4.1 year-over-year in May 2026, actually the smallest annual benchmark decline recorded so far this year (CREA). Sounds like a broad, mild slowdown. Its not evenly spread at all.


CREA specifically confirmed that benchmark prices remain down year-over-year in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, while gains in other provinces are offsetting those losses nationally. So why are Toronto house prices falling while other cities climb? It comes down to these markets correcting harder from a much higher starting point than anywhere else in Canada. Toronto and Vancouver ran the hottest during the pandemic boom. They have the furthest to fall.


Meanwhile, Other Cities Are Thriving


Quebec's average home price rose 3.7 year-over-year to $568,580 in May 2026, with Quebec City specifically averaging $503,091 (WOWA.ca). Montreal gained 2.6 annually to $674,943, and housing starts there jumped 24, the strongest signal of builder confidence in the country. Winnipeg sales jumped 24.4 month-over-month to 1,822, and Regina kept posting stronger benchmark pricing at a $376,451 average.


These aren't blips. Prairie and Quebec housing markets are genuinely outperforming while Ontario and BC correct, and CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook cites sustained population growth and improved borrowing capacity as the structural drivers. If you're weighing which Canadian cities have rising home prices in 2026, the momentum data points clearly toward the Prairies and Quebec, not toward the markets getting all the headlines.







Frequently Asked Questions

 Why is Quebec City real estate booming right now?

Quebec City real estate is rising due to strong local demand and comparatively affordable benchmark pricing drawing buyers priced out of Toronto and Vancouver. The average home price in Quebec City reached $503,091 in May 2026, part of a broader Quebec market trend where the provincial average rose 3.7 year-over-year to $568,580 (WOWA.ca; CREA). Montreal housing starts jumped 24 in the same period, the strongest builder confidence signal in Canada.

  Is it a good time to sell in Winnipeg? 

Current conditions favour sellers in Winnipeg. Sales rose sharply to 1,822 in May 2026, up 24.4 month-over-month, and CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook projects the Prairie market will stay elevated, driven by population growth and improved borrowing capacity (WOWA.ca). A current comparative market analysis will tell you exactly where your specific property sits in that active resale market.

  Why is the Prairie housing market so strong in 2026? 

The Prairie housing market is strong due to relative affordability, sustained population growth, and improved borrowing capacity. CMHC's 2026 outlook cites population growth as the primary driver of Winnipeg's elevated sales volume, while Regina's average home price of $376,451 sits well below the national average of $702,079 (WOWA.ca), making it one of the more accessible entry points for first-time buyers in Canada.

  What does regional home price divergence mean for buyers?

It means the national composite average may not reflect what's happening in your specific city, and relying on it alone can lead to poor timing decisions. CREA's May 2026 data shows the national average price rose 1.5 year-over-year to $702,079, while the more accurate MLS® HPI benchmark fell 4.1, and even that figure masks BC, Alberta, and Ontario declining while Quebec and Prairie markets gained. Your local comparable sales data is the only number that actually matters for your offer strategy.




Data sources: CREA (National Statistics, May 2026, released June 16, 2026), CMHC (Housing Market Outlook 2026).
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
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    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/why-are-toronto-and-vancouver-home-prices-falling-in-2026/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/why-are-toronto-and-vancouver-home-prices-falling-in-2026/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Why Are Toronto and Vancouver Home Prices Falling in 2026?</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
The Toronto and Vancouver markets are still correcting from their pandemic-era peaks. Meanwhile, the rest of the country is rolling along like normal, better than normal, in some cases.





The Toronto and Vancouver House Price Reality


Housing starts are down 11 year-over-year in Toronto and 1 in Vancouver, a sign that even new construction supply has pulled back in response to the correction. British Columbia remains the most buyer-friendly provincial market nationally at 6.7 months of inventory as of May 2026 (WOWA.ca), and days on market have stretched considerably across both Greater Toronto Area communities and Vancouver neighbourhoods.


And yet Greater Vancouver's average price still edged up 2.1 month-over-month to $1,235,658. Why are Vancouver house prices dropping on a year-over-year basis while ticking up month to month? Short-term volatility sitting inside a longer annual correction. Both things are true at once, which is exactly why a look at your specific neighbourhood tells you far more than the provincial or national benchmark number.


If You're Buying in Toronto or Vancouver


You have real negotiating leverage right now, and this is one of the more buyer-friendly windows in years. With active listings elevated and days on market stretching, you have time to do proper due diligence, compare comparable sales, and negotiate on more than just list price. Conditions, closing timelines, and inclusions are all in play.


Don't rush based on national headlines about a recovery. Your specific market is still correcting, and the national composite HPI isn't describing your street.


Get your mortgage pre-approval in place before you tour. The lowest 5-year fixed rate sits at 4.09 as of July 2026. Financing in place before you find the right listing means you move on your timeline, not the seller's.


If You're Selling in Toronto or Vancouver


Price to today's local comparable sales data, not to 2021 or 2022 peak comparisons. That gap is larger than most sellers expect when they first sit down to discuss a list price strategy.


Plan for a longer time on market than a few years ago and build that into your next move. Getting caught carrying two mortgages in a correcting market is an expensive miscalculation.


Get a proper home valuation from an agent with current, local transaction experience before you list. A Toronto or Vancouver real estate agent who knows recent closed sales on your specific street gives you a defensible list price. The national average won't.







Frequently Asked Questions

 Why are Toronto and Vancouver home prices falling in 2026? 

Toronto and Vancouver benchmark prices are falling primarily because these were the highest-priced markets during the pandemic boom and are correcting further than the rest of Canada. CREA confirms prices remain down year-over-year in BC, Ontario, and Alberta, even as the national MLS® HPI recorded its smallest annual decline of 2026 at -4.1 in May. Housing starts are also down 11 year-over-year in Toronto and 1 in Vancouver, signalling reduced developer confidence in near-term demand.

  Will Toronto home prices recover in 2026? 

Some stabilization is underway, but a full year-over-year recovery isn't confirmed. CREA reported the National Composite MLS® HPI fell just 0.1 month-over-month in May 2026, the smallest monthly benchmark decline since January 2025. Ontario prices remain down year-over-year, and days on market continue to stretch across most Greater Toronto Area communities.

  What does regional home price divergence mean for buyers? 

It means the national composite average may not reflect what's happening in your specific city, and relying on it alone can lead to poor timing decisions. CREA's May 2026 data shows the national average price rose 1.5 year-over-year to $702,079, while the more accurate MLS® HPI benchmark fell 4.1, and even that figure masks BC, Alberta, and Ontario declining while Quebec and Prairie markets gained. Your local comparable sales data is the only number that actually matters for your offer strategy.

  Should I buy in a declining market like Toronto or Vancouver? 

It depends on your personal timeline, financial position, and holding period. Declining markets offer real negotiating leverage and better days-on-market conditions for buyers, but short-term benchmark price uncertainty is real. BC remains Canada's most buyer-friendly provincial market at 6.7 months of inventory in May 2026. Greater Vancouver's average price still rose 2.1 month-over-month to $1,235,658 (WOWA.ca), so &quot;falling&quot; is a year-over-year description, not a month-to-month reality in every neighbourhood.





Data sources: CREA (National Statistics, May 2026, released June 16, 2026), CMHC (Housing Market Outlook 2026).
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
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    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/which-canadian-provinces-have-more-births-than-deaths/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/which-canadian-provinces-have-more-births-than-deaths/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Which Canadian Provinces Have More Births Than Deaths?</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
As of Q1 2026, only three provinces in the entire country can say births still outnumber deaths. Canada recorded 90,173 births against 90,328 deaths in Q1 2026, a shortfall of 155 people and the fifth quarterly natural decrease on record (Statistics Canada). That national figure flattens a lot of very different local stories. Some provinces are still growing organically. Others are watching deaths outpace births by the hundreds, even thousands. Here's the province-by-province breakdown.





Growing Organically: Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan


Ontario (+1,019), Manitoba (+485), and Saskatchewan (+446) were the only three provinces with positive natural increase in Q1 2026 (Statistics Canada). That organic household formation, stacked on top of whatever immigration and interprovincial migration adds, tends to support steadier and more broad-based housing demand than in provinces relying entirely on migration to grow. Entry-level and family home absorption in these markets has a demographic floor that the declining provinces simply don't have.


The Steepest Natural Decline: Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador


Quebec posted the largest natural population decline in Canada in Q1 2026, with 18,550 births against 21,350 deaths, a gap of 2,800 people. Newfoundland and Labrador broke its own record, recording 865 births against 1,806 deaths, a natural decline of 941 people, the worst on record for the province (Statistics Canada).


Both provinces show what an aging population looks like once it hits the demographic data directly. Estate-driven active listings, downsizing transitions, and long-term care moves are becoming a growing share of resale inventory in these markets, not new construction or first-time buyer activity. That shift changes the type of housing demand you should expect going forward, and it changes your negotiating position depending on which side of the transaction you're on.







Frequently Asked Questions

 What does a natural population decrease mean?

It means more people died than were born in a given period. Canada recorded its fifth-ever quarterly natural decrease in Q1 2026, with 90,173 births against 90,328 deaths, a shortfall of 155 people (Statistics Canada). The first such occurrence in Canadian demographic records happened in Q1 2022, making this a recent and still-developing shift with direct consequences for long-term organic household formation and housing demand.

  What is Canada's total fertility rate in 2026?

Canada's most recently confirmed total fertility rate, from 2024, was 1.25 children per woman, a record low and well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to sustain population without immigration (Statistics Canada). At this rate, organic household formation will continue declining without sustained immigration inflows to offset it.

  How does an aging population affect the real estate market?

An aging population increases the share of homes entering the resale market through estate sales, downsizing, and long-term care transitions rather than through new construction alone. As more of the population enters the age brackets where these transitions happen, estate-driven active listings grow as a proportion of total resale inventory, particularly in provinces like Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador where natural decline is already pronounced.

  Will fewer births mean lower home prices?

Not directly, and not soon. Fewer births reduce long-term organic household formation, but current benchmark pricing is still driven primarily by immigration levels, interprovincial migration, and existing population size. Birth rate trends typically take 20 or more years to meaningfully influence the homebuying-age population and benchmark pricing in Canadian real estate markets.

  What happens to housing demand without immigration?

Without immigration, Canada's population would be essentially flat or declining. In Q1 2026, only Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan posted positive natural increase, while permanent immigrant admissions fell 20.2 year-over-year to 83,149 (Statistics Canada). Housing demand growth is now almost entirely a function of immigration policy and interprovincial migration patterns. Birth rates are no longer a meaningful near-term driver of new housing demand formation nationally.

  How do I get a mortgage pre-approval in Canada?

Submit proof of income, employment history, existing debts, and down payment funds to a reputable mortgage broker. They'll estimate your borrowing capacity and hold a rate for 90 to 120 days.





Data sources: Statistics Canada (The Daily, Population Estimates Q1 2026, released April 2026; The Daily, Q4 2025 estimates, released March 18, 2026; Fertility and Baby Names, 2024).
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
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    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadas-housing-supply-is-quietly-tightening/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadas-housing-supply-is-quietly-tightening/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Canada's Housing Supply Is Quietly Tightening: A Province-by-Province Breakdown</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Is it still a buyer’s market in Canadian real estate? Not really. Not nationally, anyway. Months of inventory sat at 4.8 in May 2026, right in balanced territory and nowhere near the 6.4 months that signals a genuine buyer's market. Here's what's actually going on underneath that number.





The National Data Doesn't Tell You Much


About 200,000 homes were listed for sale across Canada at the end of May 2026, unchanged from a year earlier (CREA). Sounds like nothing changed. Its actually a fairly significant shift. Back in November 2025, active listings were still climbing 8.5 year-over-year, the kind of inventory growth that gave buyers real negotiating leverage.


That growth has essentially stopped. The Canadian housing inventory expansion that defined 2025 isn't building anymore, and depending on where you live, that changes the buyer's market question quite a bit.


Alberta and Saskatchewan: Clearly Not Buyer’s Markets


Alberta and Saskatchewan are sitting at just 2.9 and 2.8 months of supply as of May 2026 (CREA), both well below the 3.6-month threshold where seller's market conditions begin. So if you're wondering whether its harder to find a home in these provinces now compared to last year, the answer is yes. Noticeably harder.


Tight inventory at these levels typically translates to faster accepted offers, firmer benchmark pricing, and very little room to negotiate on list price or conditions. If you're house hunting in Alberta or Saskatchewan right now, the buyer's market you may have heard about isn't what you're going to walk into.


BC: Buyers Still Have the Advantage


BC remains the exception at 6.7 months of supply in May 2026, enough to lean into genuine buyer's market conditions with real negotiating room on active listings (CREA). Ontario sits in between at 4.2 months, down from 4.4 a year ago. Even the more balanced provinces are drifting away from buyer-friendly territory. Is the buyer's market ending in Canada nationally? Mostly, yes. BC is just holding out a little longer than everywhere else.


The sales-to-new-listings ratio backs this up. It rose to 49.2 in May 2026, up from 46.2 in April, alongside months of inventory falling from 5.1 to 4.8. Both indicators moving in the same direction at once is the early signal of a market tilting toward sellers across most of the country.







Frequently Asked Questions

 How many homes are currently for sale in Canada?

Roughly 200,000 properties were listed on Canadian MLS listings at the end of May 2026, unchanged from a year earlier and approximately 2.8 below the long-term seasonal average for that time of year (CREA). The number itself hasn't changed dramatically. What's changed is that it's no longer growing.

  What does months of inventory mean in real estate?

It measures how long it would take to sell all current active listings at the existing pace of sales. CREA's national long-term average sits around five months. Below 3.6 months signals seller's market conditions. Above 6.4 signals buyer's market conditions. Canada's national figure sat at 4.8 months in May 2026, down from 5.1 in April, within the balanced range but moving toward sellers.

  Is Canada still a buyer's market in 2026?

Nationally, no. Months of inventory stood at 4.8 in May 2026, within CREA's balanced range of 3.6 to 6.4, a real shift from late 2025 when elevated active listings still gave buyers more leverage. BC at 6.7 months remains in buyer's market territory. Alberta and Saskatchewan at 2.9 and 2.8 months are firmly in seller's market conditions.

  Why are there fewer homes for sale than expected?

New listings have been declining month-over-month, limiting inventory growth even as buyer demand hasn't fully returned. CREA reported new listings fell 1 month-over-month in May 2026, following a 2 monthly decline in December 2025. Fewer new listings entering the market means the supply pipeline is contracting even before the active listing totals fully reflect it.

  Will home prices rise if housing inventory keeps shrinking?

Tighter inventory historically supports firmer benchmark pricing. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 49.2 in May 2026, up from 46.2 in April, alongside months of inventory falling from 5.1 to 4.8. Those two indicators moving together are the early signals of a market shifting toward sellers nationally.

  How do I get a mortgage pre-approval before inventory tightens? 

Provide a lender with proof of income, employment history, existing debts, and down payment funds. They'll estimate your borrowing capacity and hold a rate for 90 to 120 days. With CREA reporting May 2026 sales already up 5.5 month-over-month, getting pre-approved before you start touring active listings is the right sequence in this market.





Data sources: CREA (National Statistics, May 2026; Provincial Board Statistics, May 2026)
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    <pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
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    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadas-population-is-moving-alberta-vs-ontario/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadas-population-is-moving-alberta-vs-ontario/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Canada's Population is Moving: Alberta VS Ontario</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Canada just did something it's never done before: its population shrank. Buried inside that headline is a bigger story. One province is booming while the two largest are losing residents fast. Here's what that means for housing, market by market.





The National Number Doesn't Tell You Much


Canada's population fell 0.25 in Q1 2026, that's 103,500 people, following the country's first-ever annual decline in 2025 (Statistics Canada). Easy to read that as &quot;the whole country is slowing down.&quot; Not quite right, though. That national figure is an average of some very different local realities, and it's the local realities that actually move housing markets, benchmark prices, active listing counts, and days on market. This is the first post in a series digging into what these shifts mean, city by city.


The Province Bucking the Trend: Alberta


Alberta grew 0.14, adding 7,300 people, in Q1 2026, the only province to post population growth at all, and has led the country in interprovincial migration for 14 consecutive quarters (Statistics Canada). Lower housing costs relative to Ontario and BC, no provincial sales tax, and a steady job market are pulling residents in from across the country.


You can see the effect directly in the Alberta housing market data. Supply sat at just 2.9 months in May 2026, one of the tightest seller's markets in Canada, with sold benchmark prices at record highs (CREA). Active listings move fast in Calgary and Edmonton. Faster decisions are the norm, not the exception.


The Provinces Losing the Most: Ontario and BC


Ontario's population dropped 0.34 in Q1 2026 alone, 54,900 people, accounting for 53 of the entire national decline from one province (Statistics Canada). BC wasn't far off, down 0.43 (24,700 people), driven by non-permanent residents departing and continued outmigration to lower-cost provinces.


And this isn't just about federal immigration policy. Housing affordability had already been pushing long-term residents out of both provinces for years before the visa numbers tightened. The policy shift simply removed the inflow that was masking an outmigration trend already well underway. The CREA benchmark price data lines up with all of it: Ontario fell 5.5 year-over-year in May 2026, BC fell 5.2, the two steepest annual declines in the country (CREA; WOWA.ca). Days on market have stretched and active listings have climbed in both provinces as buyer demand retreats.






What This Means If You're Buying


Where you buy should factor in these population trends, not just today's asking price. Growing markets tend to hold benchmark value better over a longer holding period. That's not speculation. Its what 14 consecutive quarters of interprovincial migration data is telling you right now.


In Alberta, expect competition. Tight inventory at 2.9 months of supply means quicker decisions and competing offers on well-priced listings. Mortgage pre-approval should be in place before you tour properties, not after you've fallen in love with something. Compare rates across multiple lenders before committing. In this rate environment a quarter-point difference compounds meaningfully over a 25-year amortization.


In Ontario and BC, you likely have more negotiating room than you've had in years. Use it on more than just list price. Closing timelines, inclusions, and condition removals are all in play in a market where sellers are working with buyers again.


What This Means If You're Selling


Your pricing strategy should reflect your specific province's trend, not the national headline everyone's reading.


In Alberta, current conditions favour sellers. Lean into that with confident, data-backed pricing. A tight absorption rate and record sold benchmark prices support it.


In Ontario and BC, price to today's comparable sales data, not to what your street produced at the 2022 peak. Get a proper comparative market analysis (CMA) from an agent with current, local transaction experience before you list. A national average won't tell you what your specific property is worth right now. Only recent, local closed sales will.




Frequently Asked Questions

 Why is Alberta's population growing so fast in 2026? 

Lower housing costs relative to Ontario and BC, no provincial sales tax, and a resilient job market made Alberta the top destination for interprovincial migration for 14 consecutive quarters. The province hit a record 5.05 million residents in Q1 2026, adding 7,300 people while every other province recorded a population decline (Statistics Canada).

  Why are people leaving Ontario and BC?

Long-term housing affordability pressure and departing non-permanent residents as federal visa policies tightened drove Ontario's population down 0.34 (54,900 people) and BC's down 0.43 (24,700 people) in Q1 2026. Ontario alone accounted for more than half of Canada's entire national population decline (Statistics Canada).

  How does population growth affect home prices? 

Interprovincial migration is a leading indicator of housing demand, typically appearing in population data three to six months before it shows up in CREA's benchmark price figures. Tracking migration trends is one of the more reliable early signals for anticipating where benchmark prices and active listing volumes are headed before the market fully prices the shift in.

  How do I get a mortgage pre-approval in Canada?

Submit proof of income, employment history, existing debts, and down payment funds to a lender. They'll estimate your borrowing capacity and hold a rate for 90 to 120 days. Apply with more than one lender. Mortgage rates vary enough in 2026 that comparing before you commit pays for itself over the life of the loan.

  How do I find a real estate agent in Calgary or Alberta?

Look for recent, verifiable 4 and 5 star top agent reviews in your target neighbourhood and price range. With Alberta now Canada's only growing province, experienced Calgary and Edmonton real estate agents are in high demand. Book early and ask specifically about their recent closed sales volume and days-on-market performance in your target area.




Data sources: Statistics Canada (Population Estimates, Q1 2026, released June 17, 2026), CREA (National Statistics, May 2026).
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    <pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
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    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/the-prairies-are-hiring-central-canada-is-not/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/the-prairies-are-hiring-central-canada-is-not/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>The Prairies Are Hiring. Central Canada Is Not.</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
Canada's job market has split, and the dividing line runs right through the middle of the country. Saskatchewan is leading the nation at +1.7 payroll employment growth. Alberta is close behind at +1.3. Meanwhile, Ontario is shedding payroll jobs at -0.4 and Quebec at -0.5. The Prairies are hiring. Central Canada is not. And for anyone making a real estate decision right now, that regional divide changes everything.






The Data Behind the Divide


Statistics Canada's February 2026 payroll employment data tells a story the national headline completely hides. Here's how every region stacks up year-over-year:


Growing employment:




Saskatchewan: +1.7 — strongest in Canada


Alberta: +1.3 — second strongest in Canada


Atlantic Canada: +0.8 — consistently outperforming


Manitoba: +0.3 — modest but positive


BC: +0.1 — barely positive




Declining employment:




Ontario: -0.4 — meaningful payroll job losses


Quebec: -0.5 — weakest in the country




The national average sits at approximately 0, a flat figure that masks a 2.2 percentage point gap between the strongest and weakest provinces. This isn't a small statistical variation. It's a genuine regional economic divergence, and its showing up directly in housing market data across the country.


Why the Prairies Are Outperforming


The Prairie provinces aren't just getting lucky. They're benefiting from a specific set of economic conditions that are driving real, sustained job creation.


Energy sector strength. Alberta's oil and gas sector continues to generate high-income employment that supports housing demand across Calgary, Edmonton, and surrounding communities. Energy prices and capital investment levels have remained supportive through early 2026, and that's not a minor tailwind for the Alberta real estate market.


Agricultural stability. Saskatchewan's agricultural economy has remained resilient through the current rate cycle, providing a stable employment base that supports consistent housing demand in Saskatoon and Regina without the volatility that larger, more sector-concentrated urban economies tend to carry.


Interprovincial migration. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan are receiving net inflows of workers relocating from Ontario and BC, people moving for employment opportunities and relative affordability. Every interprovincial migrant is a potential housing market participant, and that pipeline is still running at meaningful volume.


Cost of living advantage. Prairie cities offer a standard of living that is increasingly difficult to replicate in Toronto or Vancouver at equivalent income levels. That makes them attractive destinations for both employers and employees, which is exactly the kind of self-reinforcing cycle that sustains payroll employment growth over time.


Why Central Canada Is Struggling


Ontario and Quebec's payroll employment declines reflect a distinct set of economic pressures. Understanding them matters if you're buying or selling in either province.


Higher exposure to interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Ontario's economy, heavily weighted toward finance, technology, and construction, has been more vulnerable to the impact of elevated mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions than resource-based Prairie economies. Those sectors don't snap back overnight when rates begin to normalize.


Public sector headwinds. Both Ontario and Quebec have faced public sector employment pressures as provincial governments manage fiscal constraints. That affects a meaningful share of total payroll employment and doesn't get nearly enough attention in the broader conversation about why Ontario is losing jobs in 2026.


Cost of doing business. Rising operating costs in Toronto and Montreal have pushed some employers to reduce headcount or relocate operations, contributing to the net payroll employment decline at the provincial level. It's a slow bleed. But the Statistics Canada data confirms it's happening.






What This Means If You're a Buyer




Prairie buyers are entering markets with real employment tailwinds. Payroll job growth supports buyer demand, which supports price stability and long-term capital appreciation. That's not a prediction. It's a pattern that plays out consistently across housing market cycles.


Calgary and Edmonton specifically offer a combination of employment momentum and relative affordability that is increasingly hard to find anywhere else among Canada's major urban markets in 2026.


Ontario and Quebec buyers have more negotiating leverage right now than they've had in years. Employment softness has reduced active buyer competition and created genuine room to negotiate on price, conditions, and closing timelines.


Getting mortgage pre-approval in any market puts you ahead of the competition. When conditions shift, the prepared buyer moves first. And in employment-driven markets like Calgary and Saskatoon, conditions can shift faster than the headlines suggest.




See What's Available in the Markets That Are Growing


Job growth in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Atlantic Canada is driving real housing demand, and well-priced inventory in these markets won't sit long. If you're considering a move to where the economic opportunities are, now is the time to browse listings and get pre-approved before buyer competition intensifies.


What This Means If You're a Seller




Prairie sellers are in the structurally stronger position right now. Payroll employment growth means more qualified buyers are active in your market, and that matters for both speed of sale and final sale price relative to asking.


Ontario and Quebec sellers need to price strategically from day one. Buyers in these markets are more cautious and more price-sensitive than they were 18 months ago. They have options, they know it, and overpriced listings are sitting longer as a result.


The Prairie versus Central Canada divide is widening.The longer current employment trends hold, the more pronounced the difference in market conditions, days on market (DOM), and achievable sale prices becomes between the two regions.


A professional home valuation tells you exactly where your property stands in your specific market, grounded in current comparable sales data, not a national average that doesn't represent anyone's actual reality.




Find Out What Your Home Is Worth in Today's Shifting Market


In a market where provincial employment trends are driving real regional divergence, your home's value depends heavily on which side of the divide you're on. Get a free, no-obligation home valuation and find out exactly where your property stands today.


The Bottom Line


The Prairies are hiring and Central Canada is not, and that single economic fact is reshaping the Canadian real estate landscape in real time. Buyers and sellers who understand which side of that divide they're on will make smarter decisions than those relying on a national average that describes nobody's actual market. The Statistics Canada data is clear. The question is what you do with it.




Frequently Asked Questions

 Which Canadian provinces are adding jobs in 2026?

According to Statistics Canada payroll employment data as of February 2026, the provinces adding jobs year-over-year are Saskatchewan (+1.7), Alberta (+1.3), Atlantic Canada (+0.8), Manitoba (+0.3), and BC (+0.1). The national average sits at approximately 0, meaning these provinces are all outperforming a flat national baseline. Ontario (-0.4) and Quebec (-0.5) are the only regions showing meaningful payroll job losses, creating a clear Prairie and Atlantic Canada versus Central Canada divide in employment momentum and, by extension, housing demand across the country.

  How do job losses in Ontario affect the housing market?

Payroll job losses in Ontario, currently running at approximately -0.4 year-over-year as of February 2026, create real headwinds for housing demand in Toronto and the broader GTA. When provincial employment weakens, buyer confidence drops, mortgage qualification becomes harder, and fewer households are financially positioned to purchase a home. That said, Ontario's housing market is also supported by structural factors including immigration-driven population growth, limited land supply in the GTA, and long-term household formation trends, which have historically cushioned employment-driven demand softness.

  Is Alberta a good place to buy real estate right now?

Based on current Statistics Canada payroll employment data, Alberta presents one of the strongest fundamental cases for residential real estate in Canada in 2026. With employment growing at +1.3 year-over-year as of February 2026, the second highest provincial rate behind Saskatchewan, Alberta's job market is generating sustained housing demand in both Calgary and Edmonton. CMHC and TD Economics data support continued price stability and demand growth in Alberta's major urban centres, driven by interprovincial migration, energy sector employment, and relative affordability compared to Toronto and Vancouver.





Data Attribution: Payroll employment growth data sourced from Statistics Canada, year-over-year as of February 2026. Supporting context drawn from the CMHC Housing Market Outlook, TD Economics Provincial Housing Outlook, CREA regional market data, and Bank of Canada economic assessments.
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/rates-hit-bottom-now-theyre-heading-back-up/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/rates-hit-bottom-now-theyre-heading-back-up/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Rates Hit Bottom. Now They're Heading Back Up.</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
If you've been waiting for interest rates to fall further before making your move in real estate, here's the update you need to hear: the Bank of Canada's rate cutting cycle is over. Rates reached their cycle low in early 2026 and have been holding flat ever since. But market projections are now pointing in one direction. Up. Rising oil prices are feeding back into inflation expectations, and the window of maximum affordability that opened during the cutting cycle is quietly starting to close.





What the Rate Chart Is Actually Telling You


The data tells a clear two-part story. Here's what actually happened and what the market is now projecting.


What happened (January 2025 to April 2026, actual Bank of Canada data):




Rates started near the peak of the Bank of Canada's hiking cycle in January 2025


Three distinct rate cuts brought the overnight rate down in steps through 2025


By October 2025, rates dropped sharply to their cycle low


From January 2026 through April 2026, rates held flat at the bottom of the cycle




What the market is projecting (July 2026 to April 2027, forward projections):




Three separate upward rate paths diverge from the current low starting around July 2026


All three projected scenarios show rates rising. The only question is by how much.


By April 2027, the most aggressive projection shows rates nearly back to mid-cycle levels


Even the most conservative projection shows a meaningful increase from current lows




The bottom line is straightforward. The cutting cycle delivered rate relief. That relief is now at risk of being partially reversed, and buyers and sellers who act during the current flat window will be the ones who look back on their timing favourably.


Why Oil Prices Are the Wildcard


Unless you're in the Calgary real estate market, most Canadians don't immediately connect oil prices to their mortgage costs. But the link is direct and well-established. Here's how the transmission mechanism works:




Oil prices rise, pushing transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods costs higher


Consumer goods inflation climbs above the Bank of Canada's 2 target


The Bank of Canada considers raising its overnight rate to cool consumer spending


The overnight rate rises, variable mortgage rates increase immediately, and fixed rates follow through bond market pressure


Mortgage carrying costs increase, buyer purchasing power shrinks, and housing demand softens




This is precisely the chain of events that market-implied forward rate projections are now pricing in. Rising global oil prices in 2026 are reigniting inflation risk, and the Bank of Canada has made clear that future rate decisions will be data-dependent. If oil-driven inflation continues to build, the path of least resistance for the overnight rate is upward. How do rising oil prices affect Canadian mortgages? That chain above is your answer, and its playing out right now.


What the Rate Cycle Means for the Housing Market


Rate cycles and Canadian housing markets have a well-documented historical relationship. And right now, that relationship matters more than it has at any point in the last two years.


When rates fall, buyer purchasing power increases, mortgage qualification becomes more accessible, and housing demand typically strengthens, supporting price stability and appreciation. When rates bottom and hold flat, a window of maximum affordability opens. Buyers who act during this window capture the full benefit of the cutting cycle before the next tightening phase begins. When rates start rising again, buyer purchasing power shrinks, mortgage qualification tightens, and demand typically softens, creating headwinds for prices in rate-sensitive markets.


We are currently in the flat window, the most favourable rate environment of the current cycle. Market-implied projections suggest that window is narrowing. Buyers and sellers who understand that will make more informed decisions in the months ahead than those waiting for conditions to improve further. This is what a Bank of Canada rate decision impact on Canadian housing actually looks like in practice, not in theory.






What This Means If You're a Buyer




The rate bottom is in. Waiting for further cuts is no longer a strategy supported by market projections. The Bank of Canada's cutting cycle has run its course, and forward rate markets are pricing in upward movement, not additional relief.


Every projected rate hike directly reduces your purchasing power.For a $500,000 variable rate mortgage, each 0.25 overnight rate increase adds approximately $65 to $75 to your monthly payment and reduces your maximum qualification amount accordingly. Multiple hikes compound that effect quickly.


Getting mortgage pre-approval now locks in your qualification at current rates, protecting your buying power regardless of what the Bank of Canada does next. In a rising rate environment, that protection is not a small thing.


Buyers who act during flat-rate windows have historically entered ahead of the next demand surge, which typically follows rate normalization and increased buyer re-entry. Should you buy now before rates go up in Canada? The data makes a compelling structural case for it.




Get Pre-Approved Before Rates Move Again


Every Bank of Canada rate hike directly increases the borrowing cost you'll need to qualify for a mortgage, reducing your purchasing power before you've made a single offer. Getting pre-approved today locks in your qualification at current rates and puts you ahead of buyers who are still waiting to see what happens next.


What This Means If You're a Seller




Rising rate risk means a shrinking qualified buyer pool. As the overnight rate climbs, fewer buyers can qualify at the price points that matter for your sale, and those who can qualify will offer less.


Selling before the next hike cycle takes hold means transacting when buyer purchasing power is at its current cycle peak, not after it's been eroded by successive rate increases and tightening mortgage qualification.


Markets that are already soft, Vancouver, Toronto, and Southern Ontario, face compounded headwinds if Bank of Canada rate hikes layer on top of existing affordability pressure. The timing question isn't academic for sellers in those markets.


A current home valuation tells you exactly what your property is worth right now, before rate hikes change the demand equation and compress what buyers can offer.




Find Out What Your Home Is Worth Before the Market Shifts


Rising rate risk doesn't just affect buyers. It affects seller timelines too. As rates climb, buyer purchasing power shrinks and qualified demand softens. Sellers who act ahead of the next rate hike cycle will transact in a more favourable demand environment than those who wait. Get a free home valuation today.


The Bottom Line


Rates hit bottom in early 2026. The Bank of Canada data is clear, and so are the market-implied projections pointing upward from here. The window of maximum affordability that the cutting cycle created is still open, but rising oil prices and the inflation risk they carry are giving the market every reason to expect that window to close. Canadians who act during flat-rate windows have consistently made better real estate decisions than those who wait for a certainty that arrives only after the opportunity has passed.


Talk to an Agent Before the Rate Window Closes


The Bank of Canada's rate cutting cycle is over, and market-implied projections show rates climbing back up through 2027. The window to buy or sell at current rate conditions is narrowing faster than most Canadians realize. Connect with a trusted local agent today and make your move before the next hike cycle takes hold.




Frequently Asked Questions

 Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates again in 2026 or 2027?

Market-implied forward rate projections as of mid-2026 suggest the Bank of Canada's cutting cycle has ended and rate hike risk is re-emerging, primarily driven by rising oil prices feeding back into inflation expectations. While the Bank held rates at their cycle low through the first half of 2026, forward projections show a spread of possible upward paths through April 2027. The Bank of Canada has consistently stated that future rate decisions will be data-dependent, meaning inflation readings, payroll employment data, and energy price trends will all influence whether and when hikes materialize.

  How do rising oil prices affect Canadian mortgage rates and housing?

Rising oil prices affect Canadian mortgage rates through their direct impact on consumer inflation. When oil prices climb, transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods costs rise, pushing overall inflation higher. If inflation moves above the Bank of Canada's 2 target, the Bank may respond by raising its overnight rate to cool spending. Higher overnight rates translate directly into higher variable mortgage rates and put upward pressure on fixed rates through bond market dynamics. For Canadian real estate, rate hikes reduce buyer purchasing power, tighten mortgage qualification, and typically soften housing demand, particularly in already-stretched affordability markets like Vancouver and Toronto.

  What does a Bank of Canada rate hike mean for Canadian home buyers? 

A Bank of Canada rate hike directly reduces home buyer purchasing power by increasing the cost of mortgage borrowing. For every 0.25 increase in the overnight rate, a buyer with a $500,000 variable rate mortgage sees their monthly payment increase by approximately $65 to $75, and their maximum qualification amount decreases accordingly. Multiple hikes compound this effect significantly. According to CMHC affordability data, rate sensitivity is highest in markets where buyers are already stretching their qualification limits, including Toronto, Vancouver, and Hamilton. Buyers who get pre-approved before a rate hike cycle takes hold lock in their qualification at current rates, protecting their purchasing power regardless of what the





Data Attribution: Bank of Canada overnight rate path sourced from Bank of Canada rate decisions (January 2025 to April 2026, actual) and market-implied forward rate projections (July 2026 to April 2027). Supporting context drawn from the CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Financial Consumer Agency of Canada mortgage guidance, and TD Economics interest rate outlook.
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadian-house-price-appreciation-the-news-is-lying-to-you/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadian-house-price-appreciation-the-news-is-lying-to-you/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Canadian House Price Appreciation, The News Is Lying to You.</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
That's not a bait to get you to click, it’s just not an intentional lie. The problem is the headlines are answering the question. According to CREA's 3-month seasonally adjusted price data from January to April 2026, Vancouver has shed approximately 3.0 in home value while Halifax has gained 1.3. Both are happening right now, in the same country, under the same interest rate environment. If you're making a real estate decision based on what &quot;the Canadian market&quot; is doing, you're asking the wrong question. The right question is: what is your city doing?





The National Average Is Lying to You


Canada's national 3-month price change sits at approximately -1.0 as of April 2026. That number is technically accurate and almost completely useless for anyone trying to make a real estate decision. Here's why: that -1.0 national figure is the averaged-out result of cities that are rising strongly and cities that are falling sharply. It doesn't describe any single market accurately. Not one.


The real picture, city by city, looks like this:


Rising markets (January to April 2026):




Quebec City: +1.9 — strongest in Canada


Halifax: +1.3 — second strongest


Winnipeg: +0.8


Regina: +0.6


Edmonton: +0.4


Ottawa




Declining markets (January to April 2026):




Vancouver: -3.0 — weakest in Canada


Windsor: -2.3


Toronto: -2.2


Hamilton: -1.5


Kitchener: -1.3


Montreal: -0.8


Calgary: -0.1




The gap between the best and worst performing cities in this CREA dataset is nearly 5 full percentage points over just three months. That is not one housing market. That is 14 different markets operating under completely different supply, demand, and affordability conditions. And the national average describes exactly none of them.


What's Driving the Winners


The cities posting positive price momentum in 2026 share a recognizable set of characteristics. Understanding them helps explain why these markets are holding up while others are sliding.


Relative affordability. Quebec City, Halifax, Winnipeg, and Regina all offer home prices that remain accessible to a broader pool of buyers even in a higher mortgage rate environment. When affordability is less stretched, buyer demand holds up better during rate-driven soft periods. Simple as that.


Employment stability. Atlantic Canada and Prairie cities have been adding payroll jobs year-over-year according to Statistics Canada's February 2026 data, directly supporting buyer confidence and mortgage qualification in these markets. The Halifax real estate market in 2026 isn't outperforming by accident. Its backed by real economic momentum.


Supply constraints. Quebec City in particular has a housing supply base that hasn't kept pace with growing buyer demand, a classic recipe for price support even when broader national market conditions are soft. If you're asking whether Quebec City is a good place to buy real estate right now, the supply and demand picture alone makes a compelling structural case.


In-migration momentum. Halifax continues to attract buyers relocating from Central Canada, drawn by lifestyle, relative affordability, and employment opportunities that have made Atlantic Canada one of Canada's most consistent real estate stories over the last four years. That interprovincial migration pipeline hasn't slowed down.


What's Driving the Losers


Vancouver, Toronto, Windsor, Hamilton, and Kitchener are all dealing with a different set of market conditions. Understanding the causes matters just as much as knowing the numbers.


Affordability exhaustion. The Vancouver real estate market in 2026 and the Toronto housing market both share the same root problem: both cities entered the current rate cycle at price levels that had dramatically outpaced income growth. Even modest rate increases significantly reduced the pool of buyers who can qualify at those price points. That's not a temporary fluctuation.


Correction from pandemic-era peaks. Both Vancouver and Southern Ontario markets saw extraordinary price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The correction that followed has been deeper and longer in these markets than in cities that didn't experience the same degree of pandemic-era overheating. Anyone asking why Toronto home prices are falling in 2026 or why Hamilton and Kitchener are declining will find the same answer: the hangover from those peak years is still working its way through the resale market.


Sector-specific economic exposure. Windsor's -2.3 decline reflects a local economy heavily tied to automotive manufacturing and cross-border trade, sectors facing specific headwinds in early 2026 that have reduced buyer confidence and employment stability in the region. Windsor Ontario real estate in 2026 is carrying a weight that most other Canadian markets aren't.






What This Means If You're a Buyer




If you're flexible on location, the CREA data is pointing clearly toward Quebec City, Halifax, Edmonton, and Winnipeg as markets where price momentum and affordability fundamentals are working in your favour right now.


If you're buying in Vancouver or Toronto, you have more negotiating leverage than at any point in the past four years. Declining resale markets favour prepared, pre-approved buyers who can move on conditions and pricing that simply weren't available 24 months ago.


The national average tells you nothing about your specific city. Always ask your agent for city-level comparable sales data and local absorption rates before making any purchase decision.


Getting mortgage pre-approval now means you're ready to move the moment the right property appears. In both rising and falling markets, the prepared buyer consistently wins over the buyer still arranging financing.




See What's Available in the Markets That Are Moving


Quebec City is up nearly 2. Halifax is up 1.3. Edmonton and Winnipeg are gaining ground. If you're a buyer looking for markets where momentum is on your side, the CREA data is pointing you in a clear direction. Browse current listings or get pre-approved today.


What This Means If You're a Seller




If you're selling in Quebec City, Halifax, or Winnipeg, the price momentum is working in your favour. Price confidently based on a current comparative market analysis (CMA) and don't undervalue what today's market is actually supporting.


If you're selling in Vancouver, Toronto, or Windsor, precision pricing from day one is non-negotiable. Overpriced listings in declining markets accumulate days on market (DOM), generate low-ball offers, and ultimately sell for less than a well-priced listing would have from the start.


The nearly 5-point gap between the best and worst performing cities means your counterpart in another province is having a completely different selling experience right now. Ignore national headlines. Focus on your city's specific comparable sales data.


A current home valuation gives you the city-specific baseline you need to price accurately, set realistic expectations, and move decisively in whatever market you're in.




Find Out What Your Home Is Worth in Today's City-Specific Market


In a market where Vancouver is down 3 and Halifax is up 1.3, your home's value depends entirely on where it sits, not what the national average says. Get a free, no-obligation home valuation and find out exactly where your property stands right now.


The Bottom Line


Vancouver is down 3. Halifax is up 1.3. Same country. Same interest rates. Same national headline. But completely different realities for buyers and sellers on the ground. The Canadian housing market in 2026 is not one story. It's 14 stories playing out simultaneously across 14 cities. Buyers and sellers who understand their specific city's story will make smarter, more confident decisions than those waiting for the national average to tell them something useful. It won't.


Find an Agent Who Knows Your City's Market


Canada's housing market isn't moving in one direction right now. It's moving in 14 different directions simultaneously. Whether your city is rising or falling, you need an agent who understands exactly what the local data means for your next move. Connect with a trusted local agent today.




Frequently Asked Questions

 Which Canadian cities have rising home prices in 2026?

According to CREA 3-month seasonally adjusted price change data from January to April 2026, the cities posting positive price momentum are Quebec City (+1.9), Halifax (+1.3), Winnipeg (+0.8), Regina (+0.6), Edmonton (+0.4), and Ottawa (+0.1). These markets are outperforming both the national average (-1.0) and major urban centres like Vancouver (-3.0) and Toronto (-2.2). The strongest performers share a common thread: relative affordability, stable payroll employment, and buyer demand that continues to outpace available resale supply.

  Why are Vancouver and Toronto home prices falling in 2026?

Vancouver (-3.0) and Toronto (-2.2) are the two weakest major markets in the CREA January to April 2026 dataset. Both cities are experiencing the compounding effects of affordability constraints, elevated mortgage rates reducing buyer qualification, and an ongoing correction from pandemic-era price peaks that significantly outpaced income growth. Vancouver faces additional headwinds from softening condo market demand and cross-border economic uncertainty. Toronto's decline reflects a broader Southern Ontario softening that extends to Hamilton (-1.5), Kitchener (-1.3), and Windsor (-2.3).

  What does Canada's regional housing market divergence mean for sellers? 

For sellers, Canada's city-level price divergence means national market commentary is almost irrelevant to your specific situation. A seller in Quebec City is operating in the country's strongest market right now. A seller in Vancouver is operating in the weakest. The gap between those two realities is nearly 5 percentage points over just three months. Pricing strategy must be anchored in current city-specific comparable sales data and local absorption rates, not national averages. In rising markets, confident pricing backed by a current CMA is appropriate. In declining markets, precision pricing from day one is the non-negotiable starting point for a successful transaction.





Data Attribution: 3-month house price change data sourced from CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association), seasonally adjusted, January to April 2026. Supporting context drawn from Statistics Canada payroll employment data (February 2026), CMHC Housing Market Outlook, and TD Economics Provincial Housing Outlook.
 ]]> </description>
    <pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
    <guid>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadian-home-prices-a-47-year-market-story/</guid>
    <link>https://www.real-estate.ca/blog/canadian-home-prices-a-47-year-market-story/</link>
        <author>christopher@thegroup.ca (Christopher Audette)</author>
        <title>Canadian Home Prices: A 47-Year Market Story</title>
    <description> <![CDATA[ 
If you want to understand where Canadian real estate is headed, the best place to start is where it's been. Forty-seven years of annual price data from the CREA MLS dataset, covering 1980 all the way through 2026, tells a story that's more reassuring, more nuanced, and more useful than anything you'll read in today's headlines. And once you see the full picture, the current soft correction looks a lot less alarming.





The Opening Chapter: 1980 to 1995


The story starts with a bang. Canadian home prices jumped +18.9 in 1981, one of the strongest single-year gains in the entire dataset. But what goes up in an overheated market often pulls back, and 1982 brought a -2.7 correction as interest rates spiked dramatically. Sound familiar?


What's striking about the 1980s is how quickly the Canadian residential market recovered and kept climbing. After the 1982 dip, the national average sale price rose every single year through the decade, hitting +17.0 in 1986, +17.1 in 1987, +17.8 in 1988, and +13.4 in 1989. A full decade of near-continuous capital appreciation, punctuated by one short cyclical correction.


Then came the early 1990s. A recession, rising unemployment, and higher mortgage rates pushed prices down -3.1 in 1990 and produced a difficult stretch that bottomed out at -4.6 in 1995, the worst single year in the entire 47-year record. At the time, it felt like the market might never recover. It did.


The Middle Chapter: 1996 to 2012


What followed the mid-1990s correction was one of the most sustained growth periods in Canadian real estate history. Starting from a low base in 1996 (+0.2), the market built momentum quietly, then accelerated.


From 2001 through 2007, Canadian home prices rose every single year without exception, ranging from +4.7 to +11.2. Seven consecutive years of positive annual appreciation. Buyers who entered the market in 1996 or 1997, when market sentiment was still cautious and affordability had improved significantly from the early 1990s peak, were rewarded with some of the strongest long-term equity gains the Canadian housing market has ever produced.


Then came 2008. The global financial crisis hit every major economy. Canadian home prices dipped just -0.6, a remarkably shallow annual decline compared to the sustained devastation seen in the U.S. residential market. And within 12 months, Canada was back: +5.0 in 2009, +6.1 in 2010, +6.9 in 2011. The resilience was striking, and it set the stage for everything that followed.


The Recent Chapter: 2013 to 2026


The 2013 to 2019 period was defined by steady, compounding growth. The kind that doesn't make headlines but builds serious equity over a five to ten year holding period. Prices rose every year except 2018 (-4.0), which turned out to be a brief pause before a historic surge.


Then came the pandemic years. 2020: +13.1. 2021: +21.3. The fastest, largest two-year price surge in the entire 47-year CREA dataset, fuelled by the Bank of Canada's emergency overnight rate of 0.25, a massive shift in housing demand toward larger homes, and a supply base that couldn't keep pace with buyer activity. It was extraordinary. And it was always going to be followed by a correction.


That correction arrived. National average sale prices fell -3.7 in 2023, partially recovered to +0.7 in 2024, then softened again to -1.5 in 2025 and -1.4 in 2026. Back-to-back annual declines for the first time in decades. And yet, even with those figures included, the full 47-year record remains 76.6 positive. Prices rose in 36 of 47 years. The broader story hasn't changed.






Corrections Are Normal. Prolonged Collapses Are Not.


Here's what the data actually shows. Canadian home prices declined in only 11 out of 47 years, and not one of those down years produced a devastating, prolonged collapse. The steepest single-year drop was just -4.6 in 1995. The average annual decline across all 11 negative years was less than 2.5.


Compare that to the U.S. residential market after 2008, where prices fell for years and took nearly a decade to fully recover. Canada's experience has been fundamentally different, and that's not a coincidence. Stricter mortgage lending standards, a more regulated banking environment, persistent immigration-driven demand, and chronic housing undersupply have all acted as structural buffers against the kind of deep, sustained price declines seen in other developed markets.


The current correction fits the same historical pattern. The national average sale price dipped -3.7 in 2023, recovered partially to +0.7 in 2024, then softened again to -1.5 in 2025 and -1.4 in 2026. Uncomfortable to watch month to month? Sure. Historically unusual for the Canadian residential market? Not really.


The Final Word


Forty-seven years of Canadian home price data tells one consistent story: this market grows. It corrects. It recovers. And it grows again. The specifics change with every cycle, the causes, the depth, the duration. But the direction, measured over any meaningful holding period, has been overwhelmingly upward. The current chapter is a correction. In the context of 47 years, its a short one. And the next chapter is already being written.




Frequently Asked Questions

 What is the longest period Canadian home prices have ever risen consecutively? 

The longest consecutive growth run in the 47-year CREA dataset is seven years, from 2001 through 2007, during which Canadian home prices rose every single year without exception. Annual appreciation ranged from +4.7 to +11.2 across that period. This run followed the mid-1990s correction and was supported by strong economic fundamentals, rising immigration, and a sustained low interest rate enviroment. A secondary consecutive run occurred from 2013 through 2017, producing five straight years of positive annual returns before the 2018 correction.

  Which Canadian markets tend to recover fastest after a price correction?

Supply-constrained urban markets have historically led Canadian housing recoveries. Cities including Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary, where developable land is limited and population growth is sustained through immigration, tend to see buyer demand return most quickly as affordability conditions improve and mortgage rates stabilize. CMHC data consistently shows that markets with the highest immigration-driven population growth and the most acute ownership housing undersupply experience the sharpest rebounds from correction lows. Smaller secondary markets and those with weaker economic fundamentals typically recover more slowly and less completely.

  Have Canadian home prices ever failed to recover after a correction?

No. In 47 years of CREA MLS recorded data, every single Canadian housing market correction has been followed by a recovery. The corrections have varied in depth and duration, but none produced a prolonged multi-year collapse. The steepest single-year decline was -4.6 in 1995, and even that was followed by a stabilization period and then one of the longest sustained growth runs in the entire dataset. Canada's structural demand drivers, immigration, population growth, and chronic ownership undersupply, have consistently provided a price floor beneath correction cycles.

  How long does it typically take for Canadian home prices to recover after a correction? 

Recovery timelines in Canadian real estate vary depending on the cause and depth of the downturn. After the 2008 global financial crisis, recovery came within 12 months. Prices dropped -0.6 in 2008 and rebounded +5.0 in 2009. After the deeper mid-1990s correction, stabilization took longer, but the subsequent 2001 to 2007 growth run more than compensated sellers and buyers who held through the cycle. After the 2018 correction (-4.0), recovery came within one year (+2.6 in 2019) before the pandemic-era price surge. Across the full dataset, the average recovery window is roughly 1 to 3 years.





Data Attribution: Annual price change data sourced from the CREA MLS national average price dataset (1980 to 2026). Supporting context drawn from the CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Bank of Canada rate decisions, TD Economics Provincial Housing Outlook, and Statistics Canada household net worth data. 
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    <pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 10:00:00 -0600</pubDate>
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